In which forecasting method might the reliance on experience and intuition lead to inaccuracies?

Judgmental forecasting is characterized by the reliance on personal experience, intuition, and subjective assessments to predict future outcomes. This method does not utilize quantifiable data or mathematical models, which can lead to inaccuracies due to biases, emotional influences, or limited perspectives of the individuals involved.

Because it is based on personal judgment rather than objective analysis, the results can vary significantly among different forecasters. Factors such as individual bias, overconfidence, or environmental changes that may not be accounted for can distort the accuracy of the predictions made through this methodology.

In contrast, other methods like econometric forecasting rely on statistical models and historical data, allowing for a more objective analysis. Expert forecasting utilizes specialists' knowledge, while consensus forecasting combines inputs from multiple individuals to mitigate biases inherent in one person's judgment. This reliance on experience and intuition in judgmental forecasting is what makes it particularly susceptible to inaccuracies.