Which forecasting method relies on the opinions of experts and is subject to personal bias?

Expert forecasting is a method that heavily relies on the insights and opinions of individuals who possess specialized knowledge or experience in a particular field. This approach is beneficial in situations where quantitative data is limited or when predicting future trends that are not easily modeled through statistical methods. However, one of the significant drawbacks of this method is its susceptibility to personal bias; the opinions of experts can be influenced by their own experiences, perceptions, and potential biases.

This method is particularly useful when dealing with complex issues where there isn’t a clear path informed by previous data. Because it draws directly from expert insight, it can provide rich, qualitative forecasts that might not be captured through more objective or quantitative analytical methods. While the wealth of knowledge provided can enhance forecasting, the influence of individual perspectives means that it requires careful consideration and sometimes cross-referencing with other forecasting methods to mitigate bias.

In contrast, other methods like consensus forecasting aim to combine different opinions to reach a collective insight, thereby minimizing individual biases, while Delphi forecasting employs iterative rounds of questioning among experts to refine forecasts and achieve a more balanced perspective. Nonetheless, the reliance on individual expert opinions is what distinctly characterizes expert forecasting.