Which forecasting method uses the most recent normal period data to project future revenues?

Naïve revenue forecasting is built on the principle of using the most recent data available to predict future outcomes, typically reflecting the most recent period's performance. This method operates under the assumption that what happened in the past will continue into the near future, making it a straightforward and easily understandable approach. It essentially takes the latest normal period's revenue figures as a baseline for future projections without any adjustments for trends, seasonality, or other factors.

This forecasting technique is especially useful in settings where revenue patterns are relatively stable and predictable, as it offers a quick snapshot based solely on the most recent performance. Its simplicity can be advantageous for quick estimates, particularly in environments with limited resources for more complex forecasting models. In scenarios where revenue tends to fluctuate due to seasonal changes or economic variance, however, naive forecasting might not yield accurate results, demonstrating the importance of context when selecting a forecasting method.